2021 Weather In Review: Fredericksburg and Spotsylvania National Military Park

"The Sunken Road Panorama" by Rob Shenk (CC BY-SA 2.0).

In order to better understand ecosystem health in national parks, the Mid-Atlantic Inventory and Monitoring Network measures ecosystem "vital signs" across the Mid-Atlantic region. One of those vital signs is weather and climate. Below is a summary of 2021 weather conditions at Fredericksburg and Spotsylvania National Military Park.

This brief provides county-scale weather data averaged from all of the counties surrounding the park, including data from 1895–2021 (i.e. period of record). These counties include Caroline, Orange, Spotsylvania, and Stafford counties, VA. Data and analyses herein are courtesy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate at a Glance Program.

Weather vs. Climate

First of all, what is the difference between weather and climate? Weather consists of the short-term (minutes to months) changes in the atmosphere. Weather is what is happening outside at this very moment, be it rain, snow, or just a warm sunny day. Climate is what you expect to see based on long-term patterns of over 30 years or more. An easy way to remember the difference is that climate is what you might expect, like a hot summer, and weather is what you get, like a warm rainy day.

The following information includes a discussion of 2021 weather placed in the context of long-term climate (i.e. how did 2021 compare to a "normal" year?).

2021 Summary

In all, 2021 was extremely warm and moderately dry. The year ended as the 6^th warmest and 36^th driest on record. Data indicate that over the long term, annual average temperature and annual total precipitation have both increased (+0.19 °F per decade and +0.22 inches per decade, respectively).

Temperature

In total, 2020 was the 2^nd warmest year ever recorded at the park, and all seasons were very warm except for the spring (Figure 1). Nine months had higher than normal temperatures with January, February, March and November all being more than 6.0 °F above long-term averages (Table 1).

Figure 1. Seasonal and annual temperature rankings for counties surrounding the park. An arrow at the top of the figure would represent the warmest year/season on record (since 1895); at the bottom, the coldest year/season on record.

_{Table 1. Monthly and annual average temperature and departure from long-term averages. Departures from average show how different 2021 was compared to relevant averages from 1895-2020.}

Month/Year	Average temperature (°F)	Departure from long-term average (°F)
January	36.5	+2.0
February	36.6	+0.2
March	49.2	+4.2
April	56.2	+1.6
May	63.5	-0.5
June	74.2	+2.2
July	77.9	+1.8
August	77.6	+3.2
September	69.9	+1.9
October	63.5	+6.8
November	45.0	-1.0
December	46.0	+9.0
2021	58.0	+2.6

Precipitation

In 2021, the park experienced the 36^th driest year since 1895 (Figure 2). In total, 38.1 inches of precipitation fell, approximately 4 inches less than the long-term average (Table 2).

Figure 2. Seasonal and annual precipitation rankings for counties surrounding the park. An arrow at the top of the figure would represent the wettest year/season on record (since 1895); at the bottom, the driest year/season on record.

_{Table 2. Monthly and annual total precipitation and departure from long-term averages. Departures from average show how different 2021 was compared to relevant averages from 1895-2020.}

Month/Year	Total precipitation (in.)	Departure from long-term average (in.)
January	1.98	-1.12
February	3.94	+1.18
March	2.89	-0.60
April	2.83	-0.52
May	1.90	-2.00
June	4.11	+0.06
July	4.62	+0.44
August	7.30	+2.91
September	2.89	-0.81
October	3.95	+0.60
November	1.13	-1.82
December	0.59	-2.54
2021	38.12	-4.25

Temperature and Precipitation Trends
(1895-2021)

Data for counties surrounding the park indicate that annual average temperature has increased approximately +0.19 °F per decade and annual total precipitation has increased approximately +0.22 inches per decade since 1895 (Figure 3).

National Park Service scientists have forecast future changes in climate too. Models estimate that by 2100, annual average temperature at the park will increase by 2.9–8.8 °F (from a best-case to worst-case scenario, respectively). Annual total precipitation is expected to increase by 8–14% (see Gonzalez et al., 2018 for details).

Figure 3. Annual average temperature (°F) and annual total precipitation (in.) for counties surrounding the park from 1895–2021. Dashed lines represent linear estimates of change.

Climate Change

Today's rapid climate change challenges national parks in ways we've never seen before. Wildlife migrations are altered, increasingly destructive storms threaten cultural resources and park facilities, habitat is disrupted—the list goes on. Go to the NPS Climate Change site to discover how climate change is affecting our nation's treasures, what the National Park Service is doing about it, and how you can help.

The Mid-Atlantic Network's Weather and Climate monitoring program can be found here. For more information, contact Mid-Atlantic Network Biologist, Jeb Wofford.

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