Ka Malo‘o ma ka Moana Pākīpika

~Read in English

 

This page was created and funded by The Pacific Drought Knowledge Exchange (PDKE), the East-West Center, U.S. Forest Service, and National Park Service. PDKE seeks to facilitate drought knowledge exchange and enable collaborative relationships among drought stakeholders in Hawai‘i and in Pacific Island Nations.

 

 

Ka Wā Malo‘o ma ka Pāka Aupuni ‘o Kīlauea

 

He pō‘ino loa ka wā malo‘o no nā meaola ‘ōiwi he nui ma ka pāka

He Aha ia Mea he Wā Malo‘o?

‘O ka wā malo‘o, ‘o ia nō ka wā e emi iho ai ka ua ma lalo o ka ‘awelika mau ma kekahi ‘āina kiko‘ī no ka manawa lō‘ihi. Inā nele ka ‘āina i ka ua ‘ole, e emi ana ka lepo ma‘ū a me ka wai honua, a me ke kahe ‘ana o ke kahawai, a e pilikia ana ka ‘āina i ka lawa ‘ole o ka wai. Inā ‘u‘uku loa ka ua, e nui a‘e ana ka wela o ia ‘āina ma luna o ka ‘awelika mau, a e emi ana nā ao o ka lani. He mau pule, mahina, a i ‘ole makahiki paha ka lō‘ihi o ia mea he wā malo‘o, a aia ka ‘ino o ka wā malo‘o i ka lō‘ihi o ka wā e emi nui ai ka ua. ‘Oi aku ka ‘ino o ka malo‘o i ka wela o ka lā, no ka mea omoomo ka wela o ka lā i nā hunawai o ka lepo a lilo akula i ka lewa o ka lani. Loli ke ‘ano o ke kaiapuni i ka wā malo‘o, a ‘o ka hopena ‘o ia nō ka pau ahi, ka make ‘ana o nā kumulā‘au, a me ka laha ‘ana o nā meaola malihini. Ma Hawai‘i, he hanana ko‘iko‘i ka wā malo‘o i ka ‘ōnaehana aniau, a hiki i ka wā malo‘o ke ho‘ololi nui i ke kaiaola.

 

He mo‘olelo o ka wā malo‘o ma ka Pāka Aupuni i  loko o nā makahiki 1920–2020. Hō‘ike kēia pakuhi i nā wā malo‘o ma luna o ka ‘awelika mau.

Ka Wā Malo‘o ma ka Pāka Aupuni ‘o Kīlauea

He 17 mau wā malo‘o ma ka pāka mai ka makahiki 1920 a hiki i kēia manawa, a ua hala nā wā malo‘o ‘ino loa ‘ekolu ma hope o ka makahiki 2003. ‘O ka wā malo‘o lō‘ihi nui loa, he 119 mahina (mai ka malama ‘o Ianuali 2008 a hiki i ka mahina ‘o ‘Apelila 2018), a ‘o kēia ka wā malo‘o ‘ino nui loa o nā wā malo‘o i palapala ‘ia. ‘Oiai he mea ma‘amau a kūlohelohe ho‘i ka wā malo‘o ma ka honua nei, ke nānā kākou i nā wā malo‘o i loko o ke kenekulia i hala ihola, ‘ike kākou ua pi‘i a‘e ka nui, ka lō‘ihi, a me ka ‘ino o ka wā malo‘o. Ua pili ka nui o nā wā malo‘o i kou wahi e noho ai ma nā ‘āpana ‘āina pākahi o ka pāka. ‘O ka mea ‘āpiki, pālua ka nui o nā wā malo‘o ma ka ‘ao‘ao makani o ka pāka, a ‘oi aku ka ‘ino ma ia mau ‘āina ma‘ū ma luna o nā ‘āina malo‘o ma ka ‘ao‘ao Kona o ka pāka. Eia kekahi la‘ana: Ma kekahi ‘āpana ‘āina o ‘Ōla‘a, kahi pulu nui loa o ka pāka (156 ‘īniha o ka ua i ka makahiki), he 26 wā malo‘o i ‘ike ‘ia. Akā, ma ka ululā‘au ‘ano malo‘o o Kahuku (43 ‘īniha o ka ua i ka makahiki), he 14 wā malo‘o wale nō i ‘ike ‘ia i loko o nā makahiki 1920–2020.

 

Nā Hana Ho‘omalu

I ka wā malo‘o, aia i nā luna mālama ‘āina ke kuleana o ka ho‘omalu ‘ana i nā kumuwaiwai o ka pāka. No laila, he mea ko‘iko‘i ko lākou mākaukau ma nā pono hana a me ka ‘ike lawa no ka ho‘olālā ‘ana i nā hana ho‘omalu kūpono. He mau hana ho‘omalu kēia e hiki ai ke lawelawe ‘ia ma mua a ma hope o ka wā malo‘o, i mea e ho‘ēmi iho ai i nā hopena ‘ino (Ki‘i 3). ‘O ka mālama ‘āina ka ha‘iloa‘a no ka ho‘ēmi ‘ana i nā hopena ‘ino no nā kumuwaiwai o ka pāka.

Nā Hana e Pono ai ka ‘Āina

Ma Mua o ka Wā Malo‘o
E ho‘ēmi i ka laha ‘ana o nā meaola malihini; e mālama i nā pale ahi; e ho‘oulu hou i nā meaola ‘ōiwi; e ho‘okahua i nā ‘āpana ‘āina nānā; e hō‘ili‘ili a mālama i nā ‘ano‘ano o nā meakanu ‘ōiwi, a e ho‘olaha aku i kēia ‘ike i ka lehulehu.

I ka Wā Malo‘o
E pāpā ‘ia ke komo ‘ana o ka lehulehu i kekahi o nā wahi o ka pāka; e ho‘olako i ka ‘ai a me ka wai i ka manu Nēnē; e ho‘onui i ka nānā ‘ana i nā pā; e ho‘oponopono i nā hana ho‘oulu hou (mai kanu i nā meakanu hou a‘e); e ho‘ēmi i ka laha nui ‘ana o nā meaola malihini a e hopu i nā holoholona malihini.

Ma Hope o ka Wā Malo‘o
Inā ua ‘ā ke ahi, e ho‘oulu hou i nā meaola ‘ōiwi e ‘ā koke ‘ole i ke ahi; e kanu hou i nā meaola kāka‘ikahi; e ana i ka loli o ka nāhelehele i loko o ka manawa lō‘ihi, a e ho‘olālā i nā hana kūpono e hana ai.

 

Kahi i puhi ‘ia ai ka broomsedge i mea e ho‘oulu hou ai i nā meakanu ‘ōiwi ma Maunaloa i ka mahina ‘o Iulai 2011, ma hope o 35 mahina o ka malo‘o. Ua ho‘omaka ka wā malo‘o i ka mahina ‘o Kepakemapa 2008. He meaola ‘ōiwi ka Hō‘awa ma kēia ki‘i, i kanu ‘ia no ka ho‘oulu hou ‘ana i ka ululā‘au.

Photo courtesy of J.B. Friday

He Mea Nui kēia i ke Aha? Nā Hopena Like ‘Ole ma ka ‘Āina

Inā pi‘i a‘e ka pinepine, ka lō‘ihi, a me ka ikaika o ka wā malo‘o, e pilikia ana ka wai a e loli ana nā kaiaola. He mau hopena like ‘ole no ka wā malo‘o: nā hopena kūikawā e like me nā lā‘au ‘u‘uku a me nā holoholona pilikia i ka wai ‘ole, a me nā hopena ‘ino loa e loli mau ana nā meaola o ke kaiaola. Aia nā meaola ‘ane make loa he nui ma nā wahi e pō‘ino nui loa i ka wā malo‘o. Emi ka heluna o nā meaola i ka wā malo‘o ‘ino, a i kekahi manawa, ‘o ka wā malo‘o ke kumu o ka make loa o ia mau meaola. I ka wā malo‘o, e pi‘i ana ka hiki ke pō‘ino ka ‘āina i ke ahi, a no kēia mea e pāpā ‘ia ai ke komo ‘ana o ka lehulehu i kekahi o nā wahi o ka pāka, i mea e emi ai ka ho‘ā ‘ana i ke ahi. ‘O kekahi hopena ‘ē a‘e, ‘o ia nō ka nui ‘ana o ka ‘a‘aiawā ‘ana o ka ‘āina ma nā wahi i puhi ‘ia e ke ahi, a me ka nui ‘ana o ka hali ‘ia ‘ana o ka lepo i kai ma ke kahawai2. Ua mōakāka ke ko‘iko‘i o nā hana ho‘omalu e ho‘ēmi ai i ka pō‘ino o ka wā malo‘o. Eia kekahi mau la‘ana o nā hana e pono ai ka ‘āina: e waele i nā meakanu i ‘ā koke i ke ahi, e like me ka mau‘u fountain, a e ho‘oulu hou i nā ululā‘au ‘ōiwi i ma‘a i ka wā malo‘o. Pēlā e nui a‘e ai ka malu o ka lā‘au a me ka ma‘ū o ka lepo, a emi iho ka ikaika o ka makani a me ka wela o ke kahua wahie. No laila, e emi ana ka pō‘ino o ka ‘āina i ke ahi.

 

Ke Aniau ma ka Pāka Aupuni ‘o Kīlauea i Kēia Mua Aku

E nui ana ka wela a malo‘o ma ka pāka i ka hopena o ke kenekulia

Ka Wānana ‘Ana i ke Aniau

Hō‘ike nā kumu ho‘ohālike aniau (climate models) i ka nui o ka wela a me ka ua no ka hapanui o ka ‘ili honua ma kēia mua aku. Ho‘ohana kēia mau kumu ho‘ohālike i nā ha‘ihelu makemakika no ka wehewehe a wānana ‘ana i ka pilina o ka ikehu me ka moana a me ka lewa lani ma ka honua holo‘oko‘a. ‘O ka ho‘ēmi pālākiō aniau (climate downscaling), ‘o ia nō ka ho‘ololi a unuhi ‘ana i nā wānana aniau no nā wahi ākea o ka honua, i wānana aniau kūpono no nā ‘āina kūloko kiko‘ī. Ua ho‘ohana ‘ia nā ki‘ina hana ho‘ēmi pālākiō like ‘ole no ka wānana aniau ‘ana i ka ua a me ka wela ma Hawai‘i. He ‘elua kūlana o ke kinoea ho‘omehana honua e hiki ai ke ho‘ololi i ka wānana ‘ana i ka hopena o ka honua nei: ke kūlana 1) E holomua nā po‘e apau i ka ho‘ēmi ‘ana iho i ka ho‘opuka kinoea ho‘omehana honua (Kūlana “Ho‘opuka Kinoea Emi”); a me ke kūlana 2) E mau ana ka hana me ka no‘ono‘o ‘ole i ka ho‘ēmi ‘ana iho i ka ho‘opuka kinoea ho‘omehana honua (Kūlana “Ho‘opuka Kinoea Nui”). Aia ka pono ‘o ka ho‘omaopopo o ka lehulehu i ka hopena o ka loli ‘ana o ke aniau no kēia mau kūlana ‘elua ‘oko‘a. Pēlā e holomua ai nā hana ho‘omalu like ‘ole, e like me ka ho‘oulu hou ‘ana i nā ululā‘au, ka mālama ‘ana i ka ‘āina, a me ka no‘ono‘o ‘ana i ka ‘ike e pono ai ka ‘āina.

Ka Ho‘ohuli Aniau ma ka Pāka Aupuni ‘o Kīlauea

Hō‘ike ‘ia ka wānana i ka nui o ka ua ma kēia mua aku no nā kūlana ho‘opuka kinoea emi a nui ma ka mokupuni ‘o Hawai‘i ma ke Ki‘i 1. No ke kūlana ho‘opuka kinoea emi, e emi iho ka ua i loko o ho‘okahi makahiki he 7% (4 ‘īniha) i ka hopena o ke kenekulia. Ma ka ‘ao‘ao makani (ma ka hikina) e pilikia nui ai ka ‘āina i ka ua ‘ole. No ke kūlana ho‘opuka kinoea nui, e emi iho ka ua o ho‘okahi makahiki he 38% (22 ‘īniha). Inā pēlā, e malo‘o ana nā wahi like ‘ole ma ka pāka, akā e ‘ino loa ka malo‘o ma nā wahi ha‘aha‘a o ka ‘āina (ma lalo o 5000 kapua‘i). No ke ana wela (Ki‘i 2), e pi‘i ‘āwīwī ana ka wela o ka lā no nā kūlana ‘elua. No ke kūlana ho‘opuka kinoea emi, i ka hopena o ke kenekulia, e pi‘i a‘e ka ‘awelika o ka wela a i ka 3.4°F ma luna o ka wela o kēia mau lā. No ke kūlana ho‘opuka kinoea nui, e pi‘i ana ka ‘awelika o ka wela a i ka 7.1°F. No nā kūlana ‘elua, ‘oi aku ka wela ma nā wahi ki‘eki‘e loa. Eia kekahi, ma ka ‘āpana ‘āina o Maunaloa (~10,000 kapua‘i ke ki‘eki‘ena), e pi‘i ana ka wela he 4.0°F no ke kūlana emi, a he 8.6°F no ke kūlana nui.

 

Left image
Ki‘i 1: Ka wānana ‘ana i ka ua ma ka mokupuni ‘o Hawai‘i i ka makahiki 2100, no ke kūlana ho‘opuka kinoea emi1 (ma ka hema) a nui2 (ma ka ‘ākau).

Right image
Kiʻi 2: Ka wānana ‘ana i ka wela o ka lā ma ka mokupuni ‘o Hawai‘i i ka makahiki 2100, no ke kūlana ho‘opuka kinoea emi1 (ma ka hema) a nui2 (ma ka ‘ākau).

 

Figure 3: Ka manu ‘I‘iwi ma ka Pāka Aupuni ‘o Kīlauea. I kēia manawa, noho nā manu ‘I‘iwi ma ke kuahiwi ma uka o 5,000 kapua‘i, kahi e loa‘a ‘ole nā makika (Culex quinquefasciatus, ke kumu nui o ka ma‘i malaria manu a pu‘upu‘u manu).

NPS Photo/J.Wei

He Mea Nui Kēia i ke Aha? Nā Hopena Like ‘Ole ma ka ‘Āina

Ma muli o ka loli ‘ana o ka wela a me ka ua, e loli ana nā meakanu a me nā holoholona e noho ana ma ka pāka. Ke pāhola nui ka wela a malo‘o, he mau hopena like ‘ole e ‘ike ‘ia ana, e like me ka loli o nā wahi e noho ai nā meaola ‘ōiwi a malihini, ka pi‘i ‘ana o ka hiki ke pō‘ino ka ‘āina i ke ahi, ka laha ‘ana o nā ma‘i, a me ka pi‘i ‘ana o ka hiki ke pō‘ino nā meaola ‘ōiwi ‘ane make loa. ‘O ka mea ‘āpiki, ‘a‘ole ka ho‘ohuli aniau he hopena ma kēia mua aku wale nō, akā he mau hopena a hō‘ailona o ka ho‘ohuli aniau i ‘ike ‘ia i kēia wā e kū nei. ‘O ka mea ho‘oweliweli nui loa i nā manu Hawai‘i o ka ululā‘au, ‘o ia nō ka ma‘i malaria manu i ho‘olaha ‘ia e ka makika. I ka wā kahiko, ‘a‘ohe ma‘i o nā ululā‘au ma muli o ke anu ma nā wahi ki‘eki‘e. Akā, i ka pi‘i ‘ana o ka wela, laha nui ka makika i uka me ke emi ‘ana o nā wahi kūpono no nā manu, a no kēia mea, emi iho ka heluna nui o nā manu. Wahi a ka wānana aniau o nā kumu ho‘ohālike, e nalowale ana ke kaianoho o ka hapakolu (1/3) o nā manu Hawai‘i mūkīkī he 90% a ‘oi aku i ka makahiki 2080. I kēia manawa, noho ka manu ‘I‘iwi (Ki‘i 3) ma ka ululā‘au ma uka aku o kahi e noho ai nā makika, a ma lalo iho o ke kuahea, kahi e kū li‘ili‘i ana ka lā‘au ma Maunaloa. Inā ‘a‘ole i nānā ‘ia kēia pilikia, e pō‘ino ana nā meaola ‘ōiwi Hawai‘i he nui, e like me ka manu ‘I‘iwi, i ka make ‘ana i ka ma‘i malaria manu i kēia kenekulia. He mea ko‘iko‘i ka ho‘omaopopo ‘ana i ka loli ‘ana o ke aniau no ka ho‘olālā ‘ana i nā hana ho‘omalu like ‘ole. Ke hana nei nā luna ‘āina i nā mea e ho‘oulu hou ai i nā kaiaola ‘ōiwi, penei: ka pale ‘ana aku i nā meaola malihini, ka hana pū ‘ana me ka po‘e noi‘i no ka ho‘ēmi ‘ana i ka laha nui ‘ana o nā makika, ka mālama ‘ana i nā ‘ano‘ano, a me ka ho‘oulu hou ‘ana i nā meakanu ‘ōiwi ma nā kaiaola. He pono nō ho‘i ka laulima o nā hana ho‘omalu, a me ka no‘ono‘o ‘ana i ka ‘ike e ola ai ka ‘āina. Ma o kēia mau hana, e ola mau nā ululā‘au, nā meakanu, a me nā holoholona, no ka pono o ka ‘āina a me ka pōmaika‘i o nā hanauna o kēia mua aku.

 

Ke aniau o ke kau ho‘oilo (Nowemapa–‘Apelila) i na wa El Niño a La Niña o ka ENSO.

Ka Wa El Niño ma ka Paka Aupuni ‘o Kilauea

E ho‘omalu ‘ia na kumuwaiwai o ka ‘aina
i ka ho‘omaopopo ‘ana i ke aniau i ka wa El Niño

Ka Wa El Niño a La Niña

‘O ka El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), ‘o ia no kekahi hanana kulohelohe o ke aniau o ka honua, pili i ka loli o ka wela o ka ‘ilikai ma ka hikina a ma waena o ka Moana Pakipika kopikala. ‘O ke kumu o ia loli ‘ana o ka wela, ‘o ia no ka loli ‘ana o ka makani e ho‘one‘e ana i ke kai mai ka hikina a hiki i ke komohana o ka Pakipika. I ka wa La Niña (anu) o ka ENSO, pa ka makani ikaika e ho‘one‘e ‘awiwi ana i ke kai hu‘ihu‘i o ka moana mai ka hikina a hiki i ke komohana, a hu‘ihu‘i ke kai ma kahi o Hawai‘i. I ka wa El Niño (mehana), pa aheahe ka makani, a no laila, hiki ke omo ‘ia ka ikehu wela ma muli o ka ne‘e lolohi ‘ana o ke kai, a ‘o ka ‘ilikai mehana ka hopena.

Ke Anila i ka Wa El Niño ma Hawai‘i

Ma Hawai‘i, loli ka nui o ka ua a me ka wela o ke ea i ka wa El Niño a me La Niña pu. I ka wa El Niño, ‘u‘uku ka ua, a pi‘i a‘e ka wela o ke ea i ke kau ho‘oilo (Nowemapa a hiki i ‘Apelila), a i ka wa La Niña, nui ka ua a hu‘ihu‘i ke ea. I ke kau wela (Mei a hiki i ‘Okakopa) loli ke ‘ano o ke anila: ‘o ka mea ma‘amau, nui ka ua i ke kau wela i ka wa El Niño, a malo‘o ke kau wela i ka wa La Niña. ‘Oko‘a ka ikaika o na wa pakahi o El Niño a me La Niña. Ina wela loa a i ‘ole hu‘ihu‘i loa ka ‘ilikai, he wa ikaika loa ia. Ina ‘ano mehana a i ‘ole ‘ano hu‘ihu‘i ka ‘ilikai, he wa ‘ano ikaika ia. I ka hapanui o ka manawa, ‘oi aku ka malo‘o o ke kau ho‘oilo i ka wa El Niño ikaika loa. I ka wa El Niño ‘ano ikaika, ‘ike ‘ia na anila like ‘ole (ka malo‘o a me ka ua).

 

Ka ‘awelika o ka ua i ka mahina ‘o Ianuali (ma ka hema) a me ka ua i ka mahina ‘o Ianuali i ka makahiki 2010 (ma ka ‘ākau).

Ka Hopena o ka Wā El Niño ma ka Pāka Aupuni ‘o Kīlauea

He 5 ‘īniha ka ‘awelika o ka ua i loko o ho‘okahi mahina o ke kau ho‘oilo ma ka Pāka Aupuni ‘o Kīlauea, akā, i ka wā El Niño ikaika loa, emi ka nui o ka ua he 2 ‘īniha i ho‘okahi mahina. I ka wā El Niño ikaika loa o Ianuali i ka makahiki 2010, he 5.9 ‘īniha ka nui o ka ua i ‘oi aku ka malo‘o he 94% ma luna o ka ‘awelika mau ma Ianuali, a ua ‘oi aku ka wela he 3.1˚F ma luna o ka mau (ma ke ke‘ena kikowaena o ka pāka).

 

Ke ahi ‘o Luhi i ka makahiki 2003. Hō‘ike ‘ia kahi o ke ahi ma ka Pāka Aupuni.

NPS Photo

He Mea Nui Kēia i ke Aha? Nā Hopena Like ‘Ole ma ka Pāka

Ua pili kekahi o nā wā malo‘o ‘ino loa i ‘ike ‘ia ma ka pāka i nā hanana El Niño i ke kau ho‘oilo. I ka loli nui ‘ana o ka ua, pilikia nā kumuwaiwai kūlohelohe i nā hopena ‘ino, e like me ka make ‘ana o nā lā‘au ‘ōiwi (nā kawowo lā‘au a me nā lā‘au kahiko), ka ho‘olaha ‘ia ‘ana o nā meaola malihini, a me ka ho‘opō‘ino ‘ana i nā meaola ‘ane make loa. Inā ‘u‘uku ka ua a me ka pā kawaūea, hiki ke ‘ā koke ke ahi. I ka mahina ‘o Mei i ka makahiki 2003, ma hope iho o ka wā El Niño ikaika, ua pau i ke ahi he 4,900 ‘eka ma ka ‘āpana ‘o Kīlauea ma ka pāka. Ua hō‘ā ‘ia kēia ahi e ka pele, a hōlapu akula ma muli o ka malo‘o o ka ‘āina (ka pā kawaūea ha‘aha‘a loa) a me ka ikaika o ka makani. ‘U‘uku loa ka ua i loko o nā mahina ma mua o ke ahi.

I loko o nā mahina ‘eono ma mua o kēia ahi, ua emi iho ka nui o ka ua he 66% ma lalo o ka ua mau, a ua ‘oi aku ka nui o ka wela he 1.7˚F ma luna o ka wela mau.

 

Authors: Ryan J. Longman (East-West Center), Sierra McDaniel (Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park), Abby G. Frazier (East-West Center), and Christian P. Giardina (USDA Forest Service). Design and layout: Brooks Bays (SOEST Publication Services.